The New York and Washington Democratic political class was in stunned disbelief last week, scrambling to interpret Tuesday’s primary results, and the unprecedented electoral successes of the Democratic Socialists at the ballot box.
The truth is, the signs of this so-called political “earthquake” were hiding in plain sight for anyone willing to delve into the data, rather than rely on conventional wisdom.
Last winter, before launching a series of public polls on the 2025 Democratic primary race for mayor of New York, our firm conducted an exhaustive analysis of the NYC Board of Elections voter file, examining primary turnout trends across multiple years under different political scenarios.
What we found was clear and unambiguous: a Republican president creates a surge in political engagement, and ultimately turnout, among Democratic primary voters. And when the White House is occupied by a Republican president named Donald Trump, who fuels unprecedented rage among Democrats, that upward turnout trend line is put on steroids.
This is not a new pattern. Barack Obama’s presidency helped give rise to the Tea Party on the political right, just as Trump’s presidency is today putting wind into the sails of the Democratic Socialists.
But critically, it’s not just the size of the Democratic primary electorate that changes during Republican presidencies — the composition changes too, in terms of demographics, or as we say, the “face” of the electorate.
The face of the anti-Trump “surge Democratic voter” who turned out last June and again this past Tuesday is more likely a younger, white, female, college- and graduate-school-educated, progressive voter, who is more affluent than the average city resident. Many appear to be transplants, who were not born in New York City.
A large number of these voters are likely burdened by student loan debt and are struggling to achieve an increasingly elusive American Dream and they are absolutely repulsed by everything Trump says and does. In short, they are tailor-made to receive the DSA’s pitch that the political and economic system isn’t working.
By polling a larger pool of these anti-Trump “surge voters” starting in early 2025, our firm identified Zohran Mamdani’s share of the vote in the mayoral race as being three times what other public polls had found, and led us to write an op-ed in Crain’s last February, saying Mamdani’s support was “surging” at a moment when most voters had never heard his name.
With Trump still in the White House, that same anti-Trump fever was again not surprisingly driving the composition and outlook of last week’s Democratic primary electorate, just as it did in June 2025.
Despite many bemoaning the supposedly light turnout this past Tuesday, NYC voter turnout actually surged 17% higher than four years ago — which is the most relevant recent point of comparison — a sign of the Trump turnout effect — even given the absence of a top-of-the-ticket race like governor on the ballot to drive turnout.
Make no mistake: this turnout trend will continue to shape Democratic primaries across the country until a Democrat retakes the White House. Whichever party holds the White House, the opposing party’s base gets energized — and in deep blue cities like New York, that energy shows up first and loudest in Democratic primaries, with those voters tilting well left of center.
Electoral volatility in the Age of Trump, like we saw last week, is only a surprise to people who weren’t paying attention.
None of this math works in favor of the DSA and against incumbents without a basic message from a candidate that lands, and here, too, the answer was hiding in plain sight. New Yorkers have been telling pollsters for nearly two years that affordability and cost of living are their top concerns. It was never a mystery.
What voters wanted alongside it was a bold, aggressive response — in Albany and in Washington — not another round of incremental tinkering.
Our most recent citywide 5 Borough Barometer survey found Democratic voters were deeply disenchanted with the Democratic Party: 78% said the party was doing only a fair or poor job advocating for working people, and 74% said it was falling short of standing up to the Trump presidency.
Half of Democratic voters (50%) said electing a new generation of younger, more progressive members who will challenge the party establishment should be the higher priority in this year’s congressional primaries, compared to 41% who prioritized protecting experienced incumbents who can block Trump’s agenda.
The DSA understood this sentiment and built a brand around clear, easy-to-articulate positions — “freeze the rent” being the obvious example. By contrast, mainstream Democrats struggled to communicate anything nearly as crisp.
One example of this messaging disconnect played out on the Upper West Side, in the Democratic primary for the 69th Assembly District. Mamdani backed Eli Northrup, who ran as a bold progressive, arguing that politics as usual was broken and that he’d fight in Albany for affordable housing.
His opponent, Stephanie Ruskay, struggled to articulate a clear rationale for her candidacy — one week running as a mom, the next as a rabbi. She largely avoided in-person campaigning, letting Northrup dominate the neighborhood with street-sign visibility and presence at community meetings.
Her closing argument gestured broadly toward supporting public education, tenants, and quality of life, without specifics that voters could hold onto. If elections are about voters making choices, Ruskay never made clear why she was different from Northrup.
Primary result: Northrup 60%, Ruskay 39%. Nobody should be surprised.
Message discipline is only half the equation — tone matters just as much, and the left and DSA got this right, too. In the Brooklyn/Manhattan 10th Congressional District, Brad Lander campaigned with the energy of someone building a bold progressive movement, while Congressman Dan Goldman spoke far too much like a prosecutor conducting a deposition. Democratic primary voters right now aren’t looking for a careful litigator — they’re looking for a fighter with fire in their belly.
Candidates who sound like they’re building a court case may be technically correct but still lose, because voters aren’t evaluating evidence — they’re looking for someone who shares their urgency and is ready to fight.
Primary result: Lander 66%, Goldman 34%. Again, no surprises here.
Putting all these pieces together, none of what happened on Tuesday’s primary should have been a shock to the party establishment or incumbents running for reelection. The anti-Trump rage, the surge of younger, more educated progressive voters, the hunger for someone willing to fight on affordability with policy, message, and tone, in Albany and Washington — all of it was hiding in plain sight for anyone looking at the data rather than the tired, old playbook. This phenomenon isn’t going away, and it will keep influencing primary after primary until Democrats retake the White House.
Candidates and consultants who treat last week as an aberration, rather than a preview, will be caught flat-footed again. Back in December 2024, the voter file told us this trend was coming, and today it’s telling us now that it isn’t finished — and won’t be for a while.
Honan and Zeche are partners in the Democratic polling and data analytics firm of Honan Strategy Group. Honan is the co-president of the New York Metro Chapter of the American Association of Political Consultants.
NY Daily News Op Ed: Predicting the political shift: Signs of NYC’s voter discontent were hiding in plain sight
By Bradley Honan and Elisabeth Zeche | Original Article
The New York and Washington Democratic political class was in stunned disbelief last week, scrambling to interpret Tuesday’s primary results, and the unprecedented electoral successes of the Democratic Socialists at the ballot box.
The truth is, the signs of this so-called political “earthquake” were hiding in plain sight for anyone willing to delve into the data, rather than rely on conventional wisdom.
Last winter, before launching a series of public polls on the 2025 Democratic primary race for mayor of New York, our firm conducted an exhaustive analysis of the NYC Board of Elections voter file, examining primary turnout trends across multiple years under different political scenarios.
What we found was clear and unambiguous: a Republican president creates a surge in political engagement, and ultimately turnout, among Democratic primary voters. And when the White House is occupied by a Republican president named Donald Trump, who fuels unprecedented rage among Democrats, that upward turnout trend line is put on steroids.
This is not a new pattern. Barack Obama’s presidency helped give rise to the Tea Party on the political right, just as Trump’s presidency is today putting wind into the sails of the Democratic Socialists.
But critically, it’s not just the size of the Democratic primary electorate that changes during Republican presidencies — the composition changes too, in terms of demographics, or as we say, the “face” of the electorate.
The face of the anti-Trump “surge Democratic voter” who turned out last June and again this past Tuesday is more likely a younger, white, female, college- and graduate-school-educated, progressive voter, who is more affluent than the average city resident. Many appear to be transplants, who were not born in New York City.
A large number of these voters are likely burdened by student loan debt and are struggling to achieve an increasingly elusive American Dream and they are absolutely repulsed by everything Trump says and does. In short, they are tailor-made to receive the DSA’s pitch that the political and economic system isn’t working.
By polling a larger pool of these anti-Trump “surge voters” starting in early 2025, our firm identified Zohran Mamdani’s share of the vote in the mayoral race as being three times what other public polls had found, and led us to write an op-ed in Crain’s last February, saying Mamdani’s support was “surging” at a moment when most voters had never heard his name.
With Trump still in the White House, that same anti-Trump fever was again not surprisingly driving the composition and outlook of last week’s Democratic primary electorate, just as it did in June 2025.
Despite many bemoaning the supposedly light turnout this past Tuesday, NYC voter turnout actually surged 17% higher than four years ago — which is the most relevant recent point of comparison — a sign of the Trump turnout effect — even given the absence of a top-of-the-ticket race like governor on the ballot to drive turnout.
Make no mistake: this turnout trend will continue to shape Democratic primaries across the country until a Democrat retakes the White House. Whichever party holds the White House, the opposing party’s base gets energized — and in deep blue cities like New York, that energy shows up first and loudest in Democratic primaries, with those voters tilting well left of center.
Electoral volatility in the Age of Trump, like we saw last week, is only a surprise to people who weren’t paying attention.
None of this math works in favor of the DSA and against incumbents without a basic message from a candidate that lands, and here, too, the answer was hiding in plain sight. New Yorkers have been telling pollsters for nearly two years that affordability and cost of living are their top concerns. It was never a mystery.
What voters wanted alongside it was a bold, aggressive response — in Albany and in Washington — not another round of incremental tinkering.
Our most recent citywide 5 Borough Barometer survey found Democratic voters were deeply disenchanted with the Democratic Party: 78% said the party was doing only a fair or poor job advocating for working people, and 74% said it was falling short of standing up to the Trump presidency.
Half of Democratic voters (50%) said electing a new generation of younger, more progressive members who will challenge the party establishment should be the higher priority in this year’s congressional primaries, compared to 41% who prioritized protecting experienced incumbents who can block Trump’s agenda.
The DSA understood this sentiment and built a brand around clear, easy-to-articulate positions — “freeze the rent” being the obvious example. By contrast, mainstream Democrats struggled to communicate anything nearly as crisp.
One example of this messaging disconnect played out on the Upper West Side, in the Democratic primary for the 69th Assembly District. Mamdani backed Eli Northrup, who ran as a bold progressive, arguing that politics as usual was broken and that he’d fight in Albany for affordable housing.
His opponent, Stephanie Ruskay, struggled to articulate a clear rationale for her candidacy — one week running as a mom, the next as a rabbi. She largely avoided in-person campaigning, letting Northrup dominate the neighborhood with street-sign visibility and presence at community meetings.
Her closing argument gestured broadly toward supporting public education, tenants, and quality of life, without specifics that voters could hold onto. If elections are about voters making choices, Ruskay never made clear why she was different from Northrup.
Primary result: Northrup 60%, Ruskay 39%. Nobody should be surprised.
Message discipline is only half the equation — tone matters just as much, and the left and DSA got this right, too. In the Brooklyn/Manhattan 10th Congressional District, Brad Lander campaigned with the energy of someone building a bold progressive movement, while Congressman Dan Goldman spoke far too much like a prosecutor conducting a deposition. Democratic primary voters right now aren’t looking for a careful litigator — they’re looking for a fighter with fire in their belly.
Candidates who sound like they’re building a court case may be technically correct but still lose, because voters aren’t evaluating evidence — they’re looking for someone who shares their urgency and is ready to fight.
Primary result: Lander 66%, Goldman 34%. Again, no surprises here.
Putting all these pieces together, none of what happened on Tuesday’s primary should have been a shock to the party establishment or incumbents running for reelection. The anti-Trump rage, the surge of younger, more educated progressive voters, the hunger for someone willing to fight on affordability with policy, message, and tone, in Albany and Washington — all of it was hiding in plain sight for anyone looking at the data rather than the tired, old playbook. This phenomenon isn’t going away, and it will keep influencing primary after primary until Democrats retake the White House.
Candidates and consultants who treat last week as an aberration, rather than a preview, will be caught flat-footed again. Back in December 2024, the voter file told us this trend was coming, and today it’s telling us now that it isn’t finished — and won’t be for a while.
Honan and Zeche are partners in the Democratic polling and data analytics firm of Honan Strategy Group. Honan is the co-president of the New York Metro Chapter of the American Association of Political Consultants.
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