Though the president is not in danger of losing New York state, Democrats must not take African American voters for granted.
By Bradley Honan and Elisabeth Zeche | June 27, 2024 | Original Article
With less than 140 days until the November elections, one undeniable trend among New York voters is emerging: President Joe Biden’s support among Black voters in New York is weak, sparking concern and raising questions about the Democratic party’s outreach and messaging strategies to this critical constituency.
Recent polling data paints a stark picture, with Biden’s numbers lagging behind expectations and Donald Trump perhaps heading towards an unprecedented performance with African American voters in the Empire State.
Data from the latest Siena College poll indicates that Trump’s support among Black New York voters stands at a whopping 29%. This is in line with national trends: The latest national polling analysis by CNN found that Trump has tripled his performance among Black voters from 7% in 2020 to 21% today.
But New York should be different — and it is different. Right?
Indeed, The New York Times reported that Donald Trump’s father, Fred, had a “’no vacancies’ for Black” renters apartment rental policy and Trump himself has long had a hostile relationship with the Black community in New York. Recall that among other things, Trump called for the death penalty for the Central Park Five and refused to apologize for it, despite the fact that all five teenagers were wrongly accused.
Let’s be clear: Joe Biden will win New York state in November, although perhaps not with the 23-point margin he achieved over Trump in 2020. The real risk is in the down-ballot races – where the U.S. House has the potential to move to Democratic control, with Brooklyn Congressman Hakeem Jeffries becoming House speaker. But this dream only becomes a reality if Democrats have a robust turnout among their political base, and no other demographic voting group votes for Democrats in as reliably high numbers as African American voters do. Or at least used to.
Polling suggests that certain segments of the Black community feel their concerns and priorities are not being adequately addressed by the administration of the current president (a Democrat), nor at a more local level by the governor (a Democrat) and the mayor of the state’s largest city (also a Democrat). Indeed, Kathy Hochul’s weakness among Black voters, relative to Andrew Cuomo’s support with these voters, nearly cost her the 2022 gubernatorial election because there was such a low turnout among Black voters.
Why is Trump performing better with African Americans in New York compared to national averages? While there is no singular answer, several factors may be contributing to this trend.
First, it’s essential to acknowledge that political affiliations and allegiances are not monolithic within any demographic group, including the Black community. Trump’s unconventional approach to politics, coupled with his emphasis on economic growth and criminal justice reform, has resonated with certain Black voters who feel disillusioned with traditional party politics.
Additionally, issues such as rising crime rates, economic disparities and educational opportunities continue to be pressing concerns for many Black Americans. If these issues are not adequately addressed or if there is a perception of neglect, it can create openings for political opponents — even someone like Trump — to gain traction and support.
Furthermore, messaging and outreach strategies play a pivotal role in shaping voter perceptions. The Democratic party must engage in targeted, meaningful conversations with Black voters, addressing their specific needs and aspirations. Failure to do so risks alienating a crucial constituency and jeopardizing electoral outcomes.
Of course, these polling numbers are not static. But they do serve as a wake-up call for Democrats to reevaluate their approach and ensure that they are effectively communicating their vision and priorities to all segments of the electorate.
Biden’s diminishing support among Black voters in New York should serve as a catalyst for introspection and action within the Democratic party. While the political landscape is dynamic and ever-changing, addressing the concerns and aspirations of Black Americans must remain a top priority for the party and its electoral success this November.
Bradley Honan is CEO and president of the Democratic polling and data analytics firm Honan Strategy Group and co-president of the New York Metro Chapter of the American Association of Political Consultants. Elisabeth Zeche is a co-founder and partner at Honan Strategy Group.
Albany Times Op Ed: Biden’s weak showing with Black New Yorkers could have down-ballot consequences
Though the president is not in danger of losing New York state, Democrats must not take African American voters for granted.
By Bradley Honan and Elisabeth Zeche | June 27, 2024 | Original Article
With less than 140 days until the November elections, one undeniable trend among New York voters is emerging: President Joe Biden’s support among Black voters in New York is weak, sparking concern and raising questions about the Democratic party’s outreach and messaging strategies to this critical constituency.
Recent polling data paints a stark picture, with Biden’s numbers lagging behind expectations and Donald Trump perhaps heading towards an unprecedented performance with African American voters in the Empire State.
Data from the latest Siena College poll indicates that Trump’s support among Black New York voters stands at a whopping 29%. This is in line with national trends: The latest national polling analysis by CNN found that Trump has tripled his performance among Black voters from 7% in 2020 to 21% today.
But New York should be different — and it is different. Right?
Indeed, The New York Times reported that Donald Trump’s father, Fred, had a “’no vacancies’ for Black” renters apartment rental policy and Trump himself has long had a hostile relationship with the Black community in New York. Recall that among other things, Trump called for the death penalty for the Central Park Five and refused to apologize for it, despite the fact that all five teenagers were wrongly accused.
Let’s be clear: Joe Biden will win New York state in November, although perhaps not with the 23-point margin he achieved over Trump in 2020. The real risk is in the down-ballot races – where the U.S. House has the potential to move to Democratic control, with Brooklyn Congressman Hakeem Jeffries becoming House speaker. But this dream only becomes a reality if Democrats have a robust turnout among their political base, and no other demographic voting group votes for Democrats in as reliably high numbers as African American voters do. Or at least used to.
Polling suggests that certain segments of the Black community feel their concerns and priorities are not being adequately addressed by the administration of the current president (a Democrat), nor at a more local level by the governor (a Democrat) and the mayor of the state’s largest city (also a Democrat). Indeed, Kathy Hochul’s weakness among Black voters, relative to Andrew Cuomo’s support with these voters, nearly cost her the 2022 gubernatorial election because there was such a low turnout among Black voters.
Why is Trump performing better with African Americans in New York compared to national averages? While there is no singular answer, several factors may be contributing to this trend.
First, it’s essential to acknowledge that political affiliations and allegiances are not monolithic within any demographic group, including the Black community. Trump’s unconventional approach to politics, coupled with his emphasis on economic growth and criminal justice reform, has resonated with certain Black voters who feel disillusioned with traditional party politics.
Additionally, issues such as rising crime rates, economic disparities and educational opportunities continue to be pressing concerns for many Black Americans. If these issues are not adequately addressed or if there is a perception of neglect, it can create openings for political opponents — even someone like Trump — to gain traction and support.
Furthermore, messaging and outreach strategies play a pivotal role in shaping voter perceptions. The Democratic party must engage in targeted, meaningful conversations with Black voters, addressing their specific needs and aspirations. Failure to do so risks alienating a crucial constituency and jeopardizing electoral outcomes.
Of course, these polling numbers are not static. But they do serve as a wake-up call for Democrats to reevaluate their approach and ensure that they are effectively communicating their vision and priorities to all segments of the electorate.
Biden’s diminishing support among Black voters in New York should serve as a catalyst for introspection and action within the Democratic party. While the political landscape is dynamic and ever-changing, addressing the concerns and aspirations of Black Americans must remain a top priority for the party and its electoral success this November.
Bradley Honan is CEO and president of the Democratic polling and data analytics firm Honan Strategy Group and co-president of the New York Metro Chapter of the American Association of Political Consultants. Elisabeth Zeche is a co-founder and partner at Honan Strategy Group.
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