Talking Point: Poll suggests CD1 race is tight as finish line nears | June 2, 2020 | Original

A new poll commissioned by Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming’s campaign suggests a tight race for the Democratic nomination in the 1st Congressional District.

The poll of 640 individuals likely to vote in the June 23 Democratic primary found 28.89% for Fleming, 28.83% for Nancy Goroff, and 21.68% for Perry Gershon.

Conducted last week by the Honan Strategy Group, the survey used automated calling software to reach landlines and had an overall margin of sampling error of 3.85%.

Fleming entered the race after her top opponents and had raised and spent less than either of them as of March 31. Her poll shows a different field than internal Gershon polling data from the end of January, which found Gershon, the Democratic candidate for the district in 2018, with double Fleming’s support, and Stony Brook scientist Goroff hardly making a splash at 9%.

Goroff’s campaign questioned the new Fleming poll’s accuracy given that it was done with robocalling, but Goroff’s staff didn’t mind pointing out what it indicates about her numbers anyway.

“We are excited that Nancy’s message is resonating across the district,” said campaign manager Jacob Sarkozi.

Fleming’s campaign defended the representative sampling done for the poll, and was also happy to celebrate what it found, and perhaps use the numbers to the campaign’s advantage.

“BREAKING NEWS FROM TEAM FLEMING,” said a campaign text update. “Late polling in the race shows Bridget Fleming narrowly in the lead with less than 25 days left in the race but it’s neck and neck.”

“Can you chip in whatever you can afford right now to help us defend our lead?”

—Mark Chiusano @mjchiusano